August: Two new papers from our group

1. One published on Geohealth "Ozone Mortality Burden Changes Driven by Population Aging and Regional Inequity in China in 2013–2050"

   Abstract: Air pollution exposure is closely linked to population age and socioeconomic status. Population aging and imbalance in regional economy are thus anticipated to have important implications on ozone (O₃)‐ related health impacts. Here we provide a driver analysis for O₃ mortality burden due to respiratory disease in China over 2013–2050 driven by population aging and regional inequity. Unexpectedly, we find that population aging is estimated to result in dramatic rises in annual O₃ mortality burden in China; by 56, 101–137, and 298– 485 thousand over the periods 2013–2020, 2020–2030, and 2030–2050, respectively. This reflects the exponential rise in baseline mortality rates with increasing age. The aging‐induced mortality burden rise in 2030–2050 is surprisingly large, as it is comparable to the net national mortality burden due to O₃ exposure in 2030 (359–399 thousand yr⁻¹). The health impacts of O₃ pollution, shown as mortality burden per capita, are inequitably distributed, with more severe effects in less developed provinces than their developed counterparts by 23.1% and 21.5% in 2019 and 2030, respectively. However, the regional inequity in O₃ mortality burden is expected to be mitigated in 2050. This temporal variation reflects evolving demographic dividend characterized by a larger proportion of younger individuals in developed regions. These findings are critical for targeted improvement.

   

   
   

2. Another one published on Environmental Science and Ecotechnology, "Optimizing air quality and health Co-benefits of mitigation technologies in China: An integrated assessment"

   Abstract: Carbon mitigation technologies lead to air quality improvement and health co-benefits, while the practical effects of the technologies are dependent on the energy composition, technological advance- ments, and economic development. In China, mitigation technologies such as end-of-pipe treatment, renewable energy adoption, carbon capture and storage (CCS), and sector electrification demonstrate significant promise in meeting carbon reduction targets. However, the optimization of these technologies for maximum co-benefits remains unclear. Here, we employ an integrated assessment model (AIM/ enduse, CAM-chem, IMED|HEL) to analyze air quality shifts and their corresponding health and economic impacts at the provincial level in China within the two-degree target. Our findings reveal that a com- bination of end-of-pipe technology, renewable energy utilization, and electrification yields the most promising results in air quality improvement, with a reduction of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) by 34.6 ug m^-3 and ozone by -18.3 ppb in 2050 compared to the reference scenario. In contrast, CCS technology demonstrates comparatively modest improvements in air quality (-9.4 ug m^-3 for PM_2.5 and -2.4 ppb for ozone) and cumulative premature deaths reduction (-3.4 million from 2010 to 2050) compared to the end-of-pipe scenario. Notably, densely populated regions such as Henan, Hebei, Shandong, and Sichuan experience the most health and economic benefits. This study aims to project effective future mitigation technologies and climate policies on air quality improvement and carbon mitigation. Furthermore, it seeks to delineate detailed provincial-level air pollution control strategies, offering valuable guidance for policymakers and stakeholders in pursuing sustainable and health- conscious

Zhao, M., Xie, Y., Xu, M., Weng, Z., Hanaoka, T., Zhang, Y., and Tong, D.: Optimizing air quality and health Co-benefits of mitigation technologies in China: An integrated assessment, Environ. Sci. Ecotechnology, 22, 100454, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ese.2024.100454, 2024.