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所属单位：经济研究院

发表刊物：Development Policy Review

刊物所在地：英国

关键字：aid instability, aid effectiveness, cyclicality, economic growth, stabilizing character

摘要：Motivation: Despite large flows of official development assistance, the performance of recipient economies has been discouraging. Aid effectiveness, including the effect of instability of aid flows, has thus become a central concern.
Purpose: This article assesses the effect of unstable aid flows on aid effectiveness and economic growth.
Approach and Methods: We divide the aid effect into two stages:
without-aid and with-aid. The impact of aid volatility is etermined by the direction of volatility, the paths of aid and the incidence of its impact on the economy. The generalized method of moments (GMM) is applied to the panel data of 78 aid recipients from 2003 to 2017.
Findings: An open economy magnifies the impact of aid fluctuations (both positive and negative) for recipients highly dependent on aid. No statistically significant influence of aid volatility on growth can be seen. Volatility may however matter, since positive and negative impacts may offset each other. Aid unpredictability weakens aid efficiency and thus cripples growth.
Policy Implications: Donor agencies should make their assistance more predictable, above all in countries that depend heavily on aid.

第一作者：刘乔巧

论文类型：基础研究

通讯作者：李增刚

论文编号：C9CF660444304ED19842D1703F4D7384

学科门类：经济学

一级学科：理论经济学

卷号：2022;40:e1

期号：10.1111/dpr.12542

页面范围：1-22

字数：15000

是否译文：否

发表时间：2022-01-01

收录刊物：SSCI