山东大学教师主页宋礼鹏 Assessing reappearance factors of H7N9 avian influenza in China 中文主页

Assessing reappearance factors of H7N9 avian influenza in China: 发布时间：2020-08-10 | 点击次数：

发表刊物：APPLIED MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTATION

关键字：H7N9; Dynamical model; Migration of birds; Temperature; Live poultry trading markets; Reappearance factors

摘要：H7N9, a kind of subgroup of influenza viruses, has lasted for over three years in China. Although it has not yet aroused large-scale outbreak in human, it reappeared and peaked every winter. According to the obtained information and literatures, possible reasons to induce recurrence of human cases every winter can be speculated as migration of birds, temperature cycling, or reopening of live poultry trading markets. However, which one is the major driving factor is unclear. As a result, a dynamical model about migrant birds, resident birds and domestic poultry, considering temperature-dependent decay rate of virus and periodical closure of trading markets, is established to determine internal critical driving factors, and to propose the most effective prevention measure by sensitivity analysis. By numerical analysis, it is concluded that temperature cycling may be the main driving mechanism of the periodicity of infected human cases. Closing trading markets is not the main factor, but it is the most effective measure to control the epidemic to be at a low level. Consequently, periodically closing trading markets is proposed to prevent and control the spread of epidemic.

第一作者：Xing Yi

通讯作者：Song Lipeng ,Sun Gui-Quan

全部作者：Jin Zhen, Zhang Juan

卷号：309

页面范围：192-204

ISSN号：0096-3003

是否译文：否

发表时间：2017-09

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