论文名称：Bayesian Structural Equation Multi-State Model for Mediation Analysis

发表刊物：Structural Equation Modeling: A Multidisciplinary Journal

关键字：Causal mediation analysis，latent variables，multi-state model，semi-competing risks，structural equation model

摘要：This study introduces a joint modeling framework that integrates structural equation model (SEM) with multi-state semi-competing risks model to investigate the complex causal mechanism among exposure, latent mediators, and multiple hierarchically correlated survival outcomes. The framework first employs a linear SEM to characterize latent mediators underlying highly correlated observable surrogates. These latent mediators are then incorporated into semi-parametric proportional hazards models with frailty to assess their mediating roles in the relationships between exposure and hierarchically correlated survival outcomes. Estimation and inference are conducted within an integrated Bayesian framework leveraging Monte Carlo methods, Gibbs sampling, and the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. Extensive simulation studies demonstrate the robustness and accuracy of the proposed method. Application to the Framingham Heart Study uncovers causal pathways linking smoking and metabolic health factors and evaluates their combined impact on long-term cardiovascular outcomes, offering new insights into the complex interplay between lifestyle factors and health risks.

论文类型：期刊论文

DOI码：10.1080/10705511.2026.2640014

是否译文：否

收录刊物：SCI

发布期刊链接：https://doi.org/10.1080/10705511.2026.2640014

发布时间：2026-09-03