Title of Paper:Merger Control in the Presence of Geopolitical Risks

Journal:Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique（录用待刊）

Key Words:Merger control; Decoupling risks; Cost savings; Consumer surplus

Summary:This paper examines horizontal acquisitions in a vertically related market where some foreign suppliers are exposed to the risk of market exit post-merger. Compared to conventional competition tests, a merger should be subject to stricter scrutiny in competition review when decoupling risks are present, whether or not the merger involves a foreign acquirer. If the merged firm exits the market, the cost savings from a merger vanish, whereas they materialise in a more concentrated industry if a non-merging firm exits the market. In both scenarios, the minimum level of cost savings required to enhance consumer surplus increases with the magnitude of decoupling risks. Furthermore, for any given level of decoupling risk, this cost savings threshold is higher for foreign acquisitions than for domestic ones. The paper provides an analytical framework as well as policy implications for merger control in the presence of geopolitical risks.

First Author:程龙

Correspondence Author:牛帅

All the Authors:林平

Translation or Not:No

Links to Published Journals:https://www.economics.ca/cje-journal-content

Release Time:2026-07-02